THEMIS: The relevance of ‘feedback mechanisms' in migration impacted regions

This paper is co-authored by Kenneth Hemmerechts, Helene de Clerck, and Roos Willems.

People form migration related perceptions - especially in regions with a long emigration tradition where migration has reached a certain momentum - from a range of specific local, national and international sources (Timmerman et. al 2010, De Haas 2010, Portes 2010). However, these regional migration impacted cultures are situated in changing socio-economic macro contexts that also influence people's perceptions of opportunities that migration may generate. Europe is going through an economic crisis while some ‘source countries' are witnessing considerable economic growth; as for example Turkey. This does not apply for Morocco, another important ‘source country' for Europe. In this contribution we focus on the relation between (1) the significance of feedback mechanisms of international migration and (2) changing macro socio-economic contexts.

Data are collected using a survey with a representative sample (2000 respondents) and in-depth interviews (80) in two seemingly similar regions in Turkey (Emirdag, Dinar) as well as in Morocco (Todra Valley, Central Plateau) which, however, have different emigration experiences: Emirdag, Todra Valley being high migration impacted regions, while Dinar, Central Plateau are not (FP7 EUMAGINE Project).

Using multiple regression analyses and qualitative cross-country analyses we found that people in the Turkish migration impacted region (Emirdag) who belong to transnational family networks are less eager to migrate and that the European crisis is considered an important issue compared to similar people in the low emigration area (Dinar). In Morocco, however, people in the migration impacted region (Todra Valley) still have higher migration aspirations regardless of transnational family networks than in the low emigration area (Central Plateau). Thus, feedback mechanisms (presence of transnational family networks) matter for explaining migration dynamics. Moreover, with changing larger socio-economic contexts - European economic crisis versus Turkish economic growth - the impact of negative feedback of transnational family networks on migration aspirations is likely to increase.