THEMIS: Migrants' expected time of residence in receiving countries: a systems approach

This paper bridges recent developments in migration systems theory with empirical work on international migration systems to examine the latter in a theoretically informed way. Unlike in previous research, our efforts go beyond merely examining exchanges in the form of migration flows, and further consider the dynamics which govern these exchanges. We synthesize these two components in a fairly new measure of international migration. Termed migrants' expected time of residence, we estimate this quantity each receiving country in the EU-15 every five years from 1960-1965 to 2005-2010 and disaggregate our results by sending region, subregion, and country. In the process, our work helps to clarify three persistent problems in the empirical research on international migration systems, and, more generally, provides a blueprint for moving forward in this area in a way that is consistent with recent theoretical concerns and developments.