Chris Rapley, Professor of Climate Science, University College London, gives the final lecture in the Uncertainty series.
An Uncertain Climate
This talk will cover the complexity of the Earth systems, and the nature and magnitude of the challenge of exploring and understanding how it functions. Key outcomes of the research effort will be summarised, as will the approaches used to predict the future trajectory of the system and the consequences for humanity. A key uncertainty is the extent to which humans will take measures to mitigate anthropogenic influences on climate, and so I will address the phenomenon of 'climate delusion' and its consequences.
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Uncertainty is part and parcel of scientific information and the various disciplines (e.g., medical, management and social and environmental sciences) have developed vocabularies and scientific means of communicating that uncertainty. In addition, different decision-making and policy communities have developed means of using information and data that to different extents includes the associated uncertainties. For example the medical community has considerable experience in presenting and...